Thursday, October 31, 2013

DBS Vickers 1 Nov 13

Jaya Holdings - Encouraging signs persist. Maintain
BUY call and S$0.90 TP.
􀂃 Hi-P - Guidance points to weaker 2H13, no recovery
in sight. Maintain FULLY VALUED and S$0.47 TP
Post FOMC, talks that the FED may start to taper QE as
soon as December weighed down on equities for a
second day. But our economist thinks differently as a
series of slowing trend that if sustained further, may
further postpone QE tapering beyond 2014 is observed.
Home sales and mortgage applications, retail sales,
personal consumption and payrolls have slowed in recent
months even as inflation trended lower.
Having already eased some 20pts yesterday, firm bank
results could underpin the index in the current session.
OCBC reported better-than-expected 3Q earnings of
S$750mil (+5% q-o-q, +27% y-o-y) mainly driven by
stronger-than-expected insurance contribution. Other P/L
items were inline. NIM was stable as expected at 1.63%
on both flat asset and liability yields. This was supported
by 2% q-o-q, 16% y-o-y loan growth and 3% q-o-q,
15% y-o-y deposit growth also within expectations.
Provisions were also inline. Will provide more updates
after briefing today.
Though we tweaked slightly our FY14/15F earnings for
Jaya Holdings down by about 4%/1% to account for
slightly higher operating expenses, encouraging signs still
persist. High fleet utilisation sustained at > 90% and
improving day rates boost charter income in 1Q-FY14.
Newly delivered vessels have been employed on long-term
charters immediately on delivery. Industry uptrend
continues to support Jaya’s transformation to a charter
income growth story. Our BUY call and S$0.90 TP are well
supported by independent fleet valuations and healthy
balance sheet.
Hi-P’s net profit of S$3.1m met our lowered expectations,
margins collapsed on more assembly work. Balance sheet
has deteriorated; Hi-P registered its first ever net debt
position of S$42m. Guidance from Hi-P points to weaker
2H13, no recovery in sight. The group expects lower sales
and profits in 4Q13 vs 4Q12 and maintains guidance for
lower earnings in 2H13 compared to 1H13, even though
sales are forecast to grow h-o-h. Maintain FULLY VALUED
and S$0.47 TP.
US Indices Last Close Pts Chg % Chg
Dow Jones 􀀙 15,545.8 (73.0) (0.5)
S&P 􀀙 1,756.5 (6.8) (0.4)
NASDAQ 􀀙 3,919.7 (10.9) (0.3)
Regional Indices
ST Index 􀀙 3,210.7 (19.8) (0.6)
ST Small Cap 􀀘 537.8 0.3 0.1
Hang Seng 􀀙 23,206.4 (97.7) (0.4)
HSCEI 􀀙 10,627.0 (13.9) (0.1)
HSCCI 􀀘 4,551.0 9.9 0.2
KLCI 􀀙 1,806.9 (10.5) (0.6)
SET 􀀘 1,442.9 11.8 0.8
JCI 􀀙 4,510.6 (64.2) (1.4)
PCOMP 􀀙 6,585.4 (11.8) (0.2)
KOSPI 􀀙 2,030.1 (29.5) (1.4)
TWSE 􀀙 8,450.1 (15.0) (0.2)
Nikkei 􀀙 14,327.9 (174.4) (1.2)
STI Index Performance
Singapore
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
100-Day MA
Index
STI
Total Market cap (US$bn) 599
Total Daily Vol (m shrs) 2,066
12m ST Index High 3,454
12m ST Index Low 2,946
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Stock Picks – Large Cap
Rec’n Price ($)
31 Oct
Target Price
($)
ST Engineering Buy 4.220 4.80
ComfortDelgro Buy 1.925 2.19
OCBC Bank Buy 10.400 12.40
Singapore Airlines Buy 10.430 11.40
Stock Picks – Small /Mid Cap
Rec’n Price ($)
31 Oct
Target Price
($)
Ezion Holdings Buy 2.240 3.10
CSE Global Buy 0.945 1.07
Frasers Centrepoint Trust Buy 1.855 2.14
Yoma Strategic Holdings Buy 0.765 1.02
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Vickers
Singapore
Wired Daily
Page 2
3Q13 earnings for Osim in line; driven by China, Taiwan and
the new uInfinity chair. Osim has raised stake in TWG Tea to
majority owner in October, we expect slight earnings
accretion (+4%) to FY14F/FY15F earnings. DPS of 1 Scts
declared, on track to meet our 5 Scts estimate for full year.
Maintain BUY, with S$2.60 (Prev S$ 2.50) TP.
2Q14 results for SMRT below expectations, net profit
slumped by 56% to S$14.4m. Fare revenue segments
continue to register EBIT losses, offset by non-fare segments.
1H14 DPS of just 1 Sct (1H13: 1.5 Scts) was declared. We
have cut earnings by 25%-28% to factor in higher operating
costs. Maintain FULLY VALUED, TP lowered to S$1.08 (Prev
S$1.20).
Soilbuild Business Space REIT declared maiden DPU of 0.76
Scts, ahead of IPO forecast but in line with our expectations.
Steady growth in distributions in 2014, supported by organic
drivers. BUY and S$0.87 TP maintained.
Kencana Agri expects to report a net loss for 3Q 2013 mainly
due to unrealised foreign exchange losses resulting from the
depreciation of the IDR against the USD.
Sin Heng registered total revenue of $47.4m in 1Q FY2014
which was 10.1% higher y-o-y. The increase was due to
increase in trading revenue, partially offset by the decrease in
equipment rental revenue. Revenue from Equipment Rental
business decreased by 5.3% y-o-y to $12.4m in 1Q FY2014,
mainly due to completion of some domestic projects.
Revenue from Trading business in 1Q FY2014 increased by
16.9% to $35.0m, mainly due to higher volume of cranes
and aerial lifts sold in the domestic and regional markets. Net
profit after tax of $3.8m for 1Q FY2014 was 14.6% higher yo-
y.
Thai Village is proposing to place 180m new shares at
S$0.138 per share. The issue price represents a premium of
approximately 17.7% to the last volume weighted average
price. The placement is proposed as part of the Group’s
strategy to diversify its businesses from its current restaurant
operations and restaurant management services, and
capitalise on opportunities in commercial properties in Asia
(including in the PRC).
Longcheer Holdings is proposing a restructuring exercise. The
proposed restructuring exercise will allow the company to
consolidate its businesses within the Group and to categorise
into mobile and non-mobile businesses. This is in line with
the company’s strategic plans and on-going efforts to redesign
its strategic direction and strengthen the Group’s
position as well as cost control.
TEE International has signed an MOU with Loxley Public
Company, a public company listed on the Stock Exchange of
Thailand to explore opportunities in renewable energy
business and related activities in the Indochina region -
Myanmar, Laos DPR, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.
Businesses continue to invest and expand while consumers
are cutting back on borrowing. This divergence between
corporate and consumer loans is "a positive development",
and the trend is expected to continue in the months ahead,
according to consensus. Over the month, total domestic
banking unit (DBU) loans rose 1.1% to $546.6 bn at the end
of September, up from August's 0.3% growth. On a year-onyear
basis, lending accelerated after slowing for four
consecutive months. Loans growth grew 15.7%, up from
August's 15.4% growth. Loans to businesses grew 1.4%
over September to $325.6 bn, after remaining flat in August.
Year-on-year growth picked up as well to 18.6%, faster than
the 17.4% seen in the month before. In contrast, consumer
loans grew a slower 0.6% in September to hit $220.9 bn,
after rising 0.8% in August. On a year-on-year basis,
consumer loans growth slowed to 11.7%, from August's
12.5%.
The jobless rate in Singapore surprisingly fell to 1.8% in
September - the lowest level since last December - as layoffs
subsided in the third quarter, preliminary official figures
released yesterday showed. Employment growth remained
strong, driven mainly by the services and construction sectors,
despite slowing from the previous quarter.

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